The physician shortage isn’t going anywhere

Healthcare organizations are grappling with the increasingly difficult—and urgent—task of attracting and retaining physician talent to meet increasing patient demand for care. By the end of this year, the United States is expected to have a shortage of up to 64,000 physicians.¹GlobalData, The complexities of physician supply and demand: Projections from 2021 to 2036, AAMC, March 2024. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the already substantial burnout among physicians and contributed to an unprecedented departure of physicians from the clinical workforce.²Ethan Popowitz, Addressing the healthcare staffing shortage, Definitive Healthcare, September 2023. Looking ahead, physicians’ desires to step back from clinical care show no signs of abating, with current projections indicating the physician deficit could grow to up to 86,000 by 2036.³GlobalData, The complexities of physician supply and demand: Projections from 2021 to 2036, AAMC, March 2024.

One reason for the expected shortage is that some 20 percent of clinical physicians are aged 65 years or older, putting organizations in the position to soon lose a substantial number of physicians to retirement.⁴“New AAMC report shows continuing projected physician shortage,” AAMC press release, March 21, 2024. The expanding gap in the physician workforce is particularly consequential given the projected growth in patient demand: the number of people aged 65 and up—an inherently higher-need patient group—is expected to rise to 23 percent of the population, from 17 percent, by 2050.⁵Mark Mather and Paola Scommegna, “Fact Sheet: Aging in the United States,” PRB, January 9, 2024.

To deploy effective strategies to address the physician shortfall and ensure continued delivery of quality patient care, healthcare organizations are searching for the root causes of physicians leaving the workforce. With this in mind, we focused our seventh physician survey on unearthing the mindsets that are pushing doctors in the United States out of the workforce (see sidebar, “Research methodology”). Our findings, based on a survey of 631 physicians, underscore the need to take urgent action.

These findings—combined with our experience with the healthcare workforce—suggest four elements organizations can prioritize to bridge the growing gap between healthcare demand and physician supply:

1. compensation and incentive structures
2. lifestyle needs
3. involvement in decision making
4. staffing and support systems

For our insights on these levers and peer examples that organizations can use to differentiate themselves in these four areas, read “How to attract and retain physicians in a challenging labor market.” Organizations that direct resources toward these areas are likely to stand out in attracting top talent, boosting job satisfaction, and ultimately advancing their strategic goals, all while delivering exceptional patient care.