The Global Energy Perspective 2023 models the outlook for demand and supply of energy commodities across a 1.5°C pathway, aligned with the Paris Agreement, and four bottom-up energy transition scenarios. These energy transition scenarios examine outcomes ranging from warming of 1.6°C to 2.9°C by 2100 (scenario descriptions outlined below in sidebar “About the Global Energy Perspective 2023”). These wide-ranging scenarios sketch a range of outcomes based on varying underlying assumptions—for example, about the pace of technological progress and the level of policy enforcement. The scenarios are shaped by more than 400 drivers across sectors, technologies, policies, costs, and fuels, and serve as a fact base to inform decision makers on the challenges to be overcome to enable the energy transition. In this article, we explore how hydrogen could contribute to decarbonizing the energy system, uncertainties around hydrogen’s future role, and what it would take to set up a global hydrogen economy by 2050.
About the Global Energy Perspective 2023
Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that has the potential to play a significant role in decarbonizing the energy system. Hydrogen-based technologies and fuels can provide low-carbon alternatives across sectors. However, as of now, there is still a wide range of possible hydrogen pathways up to 2050 both in terms of hydrogen demand and supply, leading to uncertainty for organizations looking to enter the hydrogen market or to scale their operations.
Government and private sector support is projected to heavily affect hydrogen uptake. At the same time, future technological developments of alternatives (for instance, high-temperature electric furnaces, long-duration energy storage, and availability of biobased feedstock) could also create competition in some of the new applications for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels. Hydrogen companies may benefit from closely monitoring signposts on policies, the development of hydrogen-enabling infrastructure, and the cost-competitiveness of hydrogen-based technologies compared to other low-carbon alternatives as they chart their way forward.
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